SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 50.19%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.13%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
50.19% ( 0.11) | 22.22% ( -0.02) | 27.59% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 63.71% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.87% ( -0.02) | 36.13% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.76% ( -0.02) | 58.24% ( 0.01) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.28% ( 0.03) | 14.72% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.08% ( 0.06) | 42.92% ( -0.06) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.7% ( -0.08) | 25.3% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.93% ( -0.1) | 60.06% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.12% 4-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0)4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 3.39% Total : 50.19% | 1-1 @ 9.81% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.72% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0)Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.22% | 1-2 @ 6.74% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.12% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.48% Total : 27.59% |
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