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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.33%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 29.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%).
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
29.96% ( -0.22) | 23.71% ( -0.08) | 46.33% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 60.09% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.34% ( 0.24) | 41.65% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.94% ( 0.25) | 64.05% ( -0.25) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.47% ( -0.02) | 26.53% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.27% ( -0.02) | 61.73% ( 0.02) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.78% ( 0.21) | 18.22% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.76% ( 0.36) | 49.23% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 7.25% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 6.41% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.26% Total : 29.96% | 1-1 @ 10.91% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.17% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.83% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.7% | 1-2 @ 9.3% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 7.01% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 5.28% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 3.98% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 2.25% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.61% Total : 46.33% |
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