SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.5%) and 2-0 (5.55%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 1-2 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
41.58% ( 0.86) | 23.09% ( -0.19) | 35.33% ( -0.67) |
| Both teams to score 64.68% ( 0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.42% ( 0.83) | 36.57% ( -0.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.27% ( 0.9) | 58.72% ( -0.9) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.88% ( 0.72) | 18.12% ( -0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.93% ( 1.21) | 49.07% ( -1.21) |
| Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79% ( 0.04) | 21% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.22% ( 0.06) | 53.78% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 2-1 @ 8.66% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 6.5% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.93% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 3.16% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.82% Total : 41.58% | 1-1 @ 10.14% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 6.76% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 3.81% ( -0.16)3-3 @ 2% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.37% Total : 23.08% | 1-2 @ 7.92% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 5.94% ( -0.24)0-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.18)1-3 @ 4.12% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 1.61% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.37% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.88% Total : 35.33% |
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