Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Tijuana win with a probability of 44.55%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 27.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Tijuana win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.71%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Tijuana would win this match.
