Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 42.6%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 0-1 (9.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
