SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 29.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 1-0 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Auxerre | Draw | Monaco |
29.46% ( 2.75) | 24.79% ( 0.21) | 45.75% ( -2.96) |
| Both teams to score 56.06% ( 1.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.19% ( 0.83) | 46.81% ( -0.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.93% ( 0.77) | 69.06% ( -0.78) |
| Auxerre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.54% ( 2.47) | 29.45% ( -2.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.54% ( 2.92) | 65.46% ( -2.93) |
| Monaco Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.47% ( -0.92) | 20.52% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.97% ( -1.47) | 53.02% ( 1.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Auxerre | Draw | Monaco |
| 1-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.5)2-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.44)3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.38)3-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.25)3-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.29)Other @ 3.34% Total : 29.46% | 1-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.22)2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.25)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.78% | 0-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.63) 1-2 @ 9.27% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.73)1-3 @ 4.89% ( -0.26)0-3 @ 4% ( -0.51)2-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.16)0-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.25)2-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 45.75% |
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