SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 43%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Monaco |
43% ( -0.39) | 25.28% ( 0.19) | 31.71% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 55.56% ( -0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.01% ( -0.76) | 47.99% ( 0.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.84% ( -0.71) | 70.16% ( 0.7) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.73% ( -0.51) | 22.26% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.29% ( -0.77) | 55.7% ( 0.76) |
| Monaco Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.47% ( -0.25) | 28.53% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.69% ( -0.31) | 64.31% ( 0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lille | Draw | Monaco |
| 1-0 @ 9.54% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 7.17% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 3.59% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.3% Total : 43% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.2)2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.28% | 0-1 @ 7.97% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.67% Total : 31.71% |
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