Marseille have tended to win every other Ligue 1 match recently; a pattern which would set them up for a win here. However, they have not beaten Lens in any of their last three meetings - in fact, losing two of them - and will come up against a side high on confidence. All things considered, we are backing an entertaining draw on this occasion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 44.04%. A win for Lens had a probability of 29.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.94%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Lens win was 1-0 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
