SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 71.7%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 11.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 3-0 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
71.7% ( -0.92) | 16.43% ( 0.52) | 11.87% ( 0.41) |
| Both teams to score 55.37% ( -0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.49% ( -1.48) | 33.51% ( 1.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.69% ( -1.71) | 55.31% ( 1.72) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.79% ( -0.55) | 8.21% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 71.27% ( -1.39) | 28.73% ( 1.4) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.32% ( -0.37) | 39.68% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 23.64% ( -0.34) | 76.36% ( 0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lille | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
| 2-0 @ 10.17% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 8.48% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.41)3-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.16)5-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.17)4-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.12)5-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.09)6-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.1)6-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.2% Total : 71.69% | 1-1 @ 7.53% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.25)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.18% Total : 16.43% | 1-2 @ 3.48% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 3.01% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.58% Total : 11.87% |
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