SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 60.98%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 18.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.35%) and 0-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.5%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 2-1 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Lyon |
18.48% ( -0.63) | 20.54% ( -0.1) | 60.98% ( 0.73) |
| Both teams to score 57.3% ( -0.84) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.96% ( -0.55) | 39.03% ( 0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.64% ( -0.58) | 61.35% ( 0.58) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.4% ( -0.98) | 34.6% ( 0.99) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.68% ( -1.06) | 71.31% ( 1.06) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.62% ( 0.04) | 12.38% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.76% ( 0.08) | 38.24% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Lyon |
| 2-1 @ 5.04% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 4.55% ( -0)2-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.84% Total : 18.48% | 1-1 @ 9.5% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.13)0-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.54% | 1-2 @ 9.92% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 9.35% ( 0.27)0-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 6.91% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 6.51% ( 0.19)2-3 @ 3.67% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 3.61% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 3.4% ( 0.11)2-4 @ 1.92% ( -0.04)1-5 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.42% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.83% Total : 60.98% |
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