Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 38.37%. A win for Metz had a probability of 32.89% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.83%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (11.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.