Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Metz had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.