Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 42.16%. A win for Metz had a probability of 30.35% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (9.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
