Lens will have the motivation of European football being on the line in this game, while the visitors have nothing left to play for, leading us to believe the hosts will win this one.
One goal has been the difference in five of the last six victories for either side in this fixture, and we believe this one will follow the same pattern with a 1-0 win for Lens.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 52.79%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 24.27% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-2 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
1.17) 
-1.23) 
