Without the towering presence of Ajorque, Strasbourg do not look nearly as intimidating in the attack, but they have fared well defensively at times this year, conceding a goal or fewer in three home fixtures.
Les Dogues are putting a lot on the shoulders of Jonathan David at the moment, and the Canadian has delivered, but we expect him to get more attention than any Lille player in this encounter, so his scoring chances could diminish.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Strasbourg had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.55%). The likeliest Strasbourg win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
0.15) 
-0.05) 
