Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 37.37%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.66%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Bastia win was 0-1 (11.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajaccio would win this match.
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