Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 42.91%. A win for Chateauroux had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (8.39%). The likeliest Chateauroux win was 1-0 (10.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
