Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 44.87%. A win for Pau had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (8.48%). The likeliest Pau win was 1-0 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
1.66) 
-2.33) 
