Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 46.77%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 27.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Bastia win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint-Etienne would win this match.
0.9) 
-0.74) 
