Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Quevilly win with a probability of 39.82%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 33.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Quevilly win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.21%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
-0.13) 
0.02) 
