Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valenciennes win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valenciennes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
1.49) 
-1.51) 
