Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 47.48%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 28.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for DC United in this match.