Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 39.15%. A win for DC United had a probability of 35% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest DC United win was 0-1 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
