They have defied the odds time and again, and there is no reason to believe that they cannot do it once more as RSL will be bolstered by the return of their second-leading goalscorer in the regular season (Rusnak), while the Timbers are missing some critical pieces to their success, most notably Blanco, which could be a little too much for them to overcome in spite of their depth.
We will give Salt Lake the edge in this one because they have been in so many win-or-go-home scenarios of late that it should not overwhelm them, especially since they will not be favourites according to the bookies heading into this match.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 53.8%. A win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 24.03% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Real Salt Lake win was 1-2 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.
