Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marine AFC win with a probability of 37.63%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 35.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marine AFC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Chorley win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marine AFC would win this match.
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