Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Chorley win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alfreton Town in this match.
1.03) 
-0.07) 
