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National League South | Gameweek 1
Aug 5, 2023 at 3pm UK
Melbourne Cricket Ground

Chelmsford City
1 - 0
Farnborough Town

Mills (45')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Coverage of the National League South clash between Chelmsford City and Farnborough Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Chelmsford City 0-1 St Albans City
Tuesday, May 2 at 7.30pm in National League South
Last Game: St Albans City 2-0 Farnborough Town
Saturday, April 29 at 3pm in National League South

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Farnborough Town win with a probability of 41.55%. A win for Chelmsford City had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Farnborough Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Chelmsford City win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
Chelmsford CityDrawFarnborough Town
31.66% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 26.79% (0.113 0.11) 41.55% (-0.101 -0.1)
Both teams to score 50.71% (-0.343 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.76% (-0.437 -0.44)54.24% (0.44 0.44)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.36% (-0.365 -0.37)75.64% (0.369 0.37)
Chelmsford City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.3% (-0.229 -0.23)31.7% (0.232 0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.88% (-0.264 -0.26)68.12% (0.26700000000001 0.27)
Farnborough Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.25% (-0.252 -0.25)25.75% (0.253 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.32% (-0.344 -0.34)60.68% (0.347 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Chelmsford City 31.66%
    Farnborough Town 41.54%
    Draw 26.79%
Chelmsford CityDrawFarnborough Town
1-0 @ 9.38% (0.101 0.1)
2-1 @ 7.31% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 5.39% (0.024 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.8% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-0 @ 2.06% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-2 @ 1.9% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 31.66%
1-1 @ 12.72% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 8.16% (0.14 0.14)
2-2 @ 4.96% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 26.79%
0-1 @ 11.07% (0.11 0.11)
1-2 @ 8.63% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-2 @ 7.51% (0.02 0.02)
1-3 @ 3.9% (-0.043 -0.04)
0-3 @ 3.4% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.24% (-0.039 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.32% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-4 @ 1.15% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 41.54%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Chelmsford City 0-1 St Albans City
Tuesday, May 2 at 7.30pm in National League South
Last Game: Chelmsford City 1-2 Taunton Town
Saturday, April 29 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Hemel Hempstead 0-0 Chelmsford City
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Cheshunt 1-2 Chelmsford City
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in National League South
Last Game: Chelmsford City 5-1 Hungerford
Saturday, April 15 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Oxford City 3-1 Chelmsford City
Monday, April 10 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: St Albans City 2-0 Farnborough Town
Saturday, April 29 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Farnborough Town 1-2 Tonbridge Angels
Tuesday, April 25 at 7.45pm in National League South
Last Game: Farnborough Town 3-0 Dover Athletic
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Farnborough Town 0-1 Worthing
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in National League South
Last Game: Slough 2-0 Farnborough Town
Saturday, April 15 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Chelmsford City 3-2 Farnborough Town
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in National League South


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