SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Chelmsford City had a probability of 32.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.95%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Chelmsford City win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Oxford City | Draw | Chelmsford City |
43.85% ( 0.02) | 23.93% ( -0.02) | 32.23% |
| Both teams to score 60.52% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.4% ( 0.08) | 41.6% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36% ( 0.08) | 64% ( -0.08) |
| Oxford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.78% ( 0.04) | 19.22% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.08% ( 0.07) | 50.92% ( -0.07) |
| Chelmsford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.92% ( 0.04) | 25.08% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.23% ( 0.05) | 59.77% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford City | Draw | Chelmsford City |
| 2-1 @ 9.07% 1-0 @ 7.95% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.98% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.6% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.49% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.28% Total : 43.85% | 1-1 @ 10.99% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.82% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.59% ( 0)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.92% | 1-2 @ 7.6% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.51% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.13% 1-4 @ 1.21% ( 0)2-4 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 2.61% Total : 32.23% |
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