Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Chelmsford City had a probability of 32.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.95%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Chelmsford City win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford City would win this match.

Result
Oxford City	Draw	Chelmsford City
43.85% ( 0.02)	23.93% ( -0.02)	32.23%

Both teams to score 60.52% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.4% (

0.08)

41.6% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36% (

0.08)

64% (

-0.08)

Oxford City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.78% (

0.04)

19.22% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.08% (

0.07)

50.92% (

-0.07)

Chelmsford City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.92% (

0.04)

25.08% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.23% (

0.05)

59.77% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Oxford City 43.85%

Chelmsford City 32.23%

Draw 23.92%

Oxford City	Draw	Chelmsford City
2-1 @ 9.07% 1-0 @ 7.95% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.98% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.6% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.49% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.28% Total : 43.85%	1-1 @ 10.99% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.82% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.59% ( 0) Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.92%	1-2 @ 7.6% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.51% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.13% 1-4 @ 1.21% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 2.61% Total : 32.23%