SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelmsford City win with a probability of 60.12%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Hungerford Town had a probability of 19.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelmsford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.26%) and 1-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.64%), while for a Hungerford Town win it was 1-2 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelmsford City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelmsford City | Draw | Hungerford Town |
60.12% ( 2.24) | 20.83% ( -0.64) | 19.06% ( -1.6) |
| Both teams to score 57.38% ( -0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.55% ( 0.58) | 39.45% ( -0.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.21% ( 0.6) | 61.79% ( -0.6) |
| Chelmsford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.24% ( 0.85) | 12.75% ( -0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.98% ( 1.73) | 39.02% ( -1.72) |
| Hungerford Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.76% ( -1.26) | 34.23% ( 1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.07% ( -1.38) | 70.93% ( 1.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelmsford City | Draw | Hungerford Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.33)1-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.81% ( 0.23)3-0 @ 6.36% ( 0.42)3-2 @ 3.65% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.51% ( 0.22)4-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.31)4-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.13)5-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.17)Other @ 3.67% Total : 60.12% | 1-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.29) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.17)0-0 @ 4.37% ( -0.12)3-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.83% | 1-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.34) 0-1 @ 4.68% ( -0.3)0-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.25)2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.19)Other @ 2.95% Total : 19.06% |
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