Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 55.1%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Chelmsford City had a probability of 22.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Chelmsford City win it was 1-2 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford City would win this match.