Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oldham Athletic win with a probability of 53.2%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 23.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oldham Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 0-1 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oldham Athletic would win this match.
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