Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wealdstone win with a probability of 43.41%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 32% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wealdstone win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.72%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 1-2 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wealdstone would win this match.
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