Cyprus have produced just one goal so far in Group 2, but home advantage could help them repeat their 1-0 win over Lithuania in the reverse fixture.
A tense encounter will be more about avoiding defeat for the hosts, but they may well claim maximum points by picking off their opponents on the break.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 65.55%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Cyprus had a probability of 13.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.53%) and 1-2 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Cyprus win it was 1-0 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Cyprus would win this match.
-0.04) 
0.05) 
