SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Poland | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 56.96%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Italy had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| France | Draw | Italy |
56.96% ( -0.41) | 25.12% ( 0.19) | 17.92% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 42.43% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.65% ( -0.4) | 58.34% ( 0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.04% ( -0.31) | 78.96% ( 0.31) |
| France Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.49% ( -0.32) | 20.5% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.01% ( -0.51) | 52.99% ( 0.5) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.37% ( 0.02) | 46.63% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.8% ( 0.02) | 82.2% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| France | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 15.14% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 12% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 6.34% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 2.51% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.85% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.2% Total : 56.95% | 1-1 @ 11.55% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.51% Total : 25.11% | 0-1 @ 7.29% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 17.92% |
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