SM
| Current League A1 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Scotland | 4 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 66.32%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Poland had a probability of 13.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.39%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a Poland win it was 0-1 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portugal | Draw | Poland |
66.32% ( 0.04) | 19.81% ( 0.05) | 13.88% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 49.18% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.45% ( -0.42) | 44.55% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.08% ( -0.4) | 66.92% ( 0.41) |
| Portugal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.45% ( -0.11) | 12.55% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.41% ( -0.23) | 38.59% ( 0.24) |
| Poland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.23% ( -0.39) | 43.77% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.07% ( -0.33) | 79.93% ( 0.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portugal | Draw | Poland |
| 2-0 @ 11.83% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 11.39% ( 0.15)2-1 @ 9.78% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.76% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 4.25% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.51% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.15% Total : 66.31% | 1-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.86% Total : 19.81% | 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.89% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.39% Total : 13.88% |
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