Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Women win with a probability of 52.37%. A win for Australia Women had a probability of 25.17% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA Women win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Australia Women win was 2-1 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA Women would win this match.
