Spain's uncharacteristic loss to Egypt should certainly be taken with a pinch of salt, as Denia made a multitude of changes with a quarter-final place already secured.
La Roja's backline remains permeable, but Denia's well-rested big-hitters should make their presence felt at the other end of the pitch to wreck Japan's perfect defensive record and storm into the semis.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan Under-23s win with a probability of 37.5%. A win for Spain Under-23s had a probability of 36.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan Under-23s win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest Spain Under-23s win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Spain Under-23s would win this match.
