Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-23s win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Burnley Under-23s had a probability of 36.69% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.26%) and 2-0 (5.29%). The likeliest Burnley Under-23s win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-23s would win this match.