We said: Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 Southampton
This is a tough opener for Southampton, and we are finding it very difficult to predict anything other than a defeat for the Saints. Tottenham were strong towards the end of last season and look in good shape for the 2022-23 campaign, so we can only see a comfortable home victory here.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tottenham Hotspur win with a probability of 62.46%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 17.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham Hotspur win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-2 (4.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tottenham Hotspur would win this match.