Arouca have put together a solid run of results in recent weeks as they continue their hunt for a first appearance in Europe since the 2016-17 campaign. However, we predict that Pacos de Ferreira will build on their impressive display against Santa Clara and pick up a slender victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 47.29%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 25.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.78%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
0.2) 
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