SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 49.47%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.59%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Arouca |
49.47% ( -0.14) | 26.2% ( 0.02) | 24.33% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 47.67% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.16% ( 0.03) | 55.84% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.04% ( 0.02) | 76.96% ( -0.02) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.37% ( -0.05) | 22.63% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.75% ( -0.07) | 56.25% ( 0.07) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.61% ( 0.12) | 38.39% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.86% ( 0.12) | 75.14% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 12.9% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 9.59% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.75% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.55% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.86% Total : 49.46% | 1-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.69% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.76% Total : 26.19% | 0-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.98% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.56% Total : 24.33% |
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