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Primeira Liga | Gameweek 21
Feb 19, 2023 at 6pm UK
Estádio Municipal de Braga
A

Braga
2 - 0
Arouca

Ruiz (1'), Banza (81')
Racic (37')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Basso (45'), Moreira (66'), Galovic (74'), Simao (74')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Braga 0-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, February 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Arouca 1-0 Santa Clara
Saturday, February 11 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Braga 2-0 Arouca

While Braga have flattered to deceive in Europe, back home they have enjoyed a solid campaign and are currently seated in the upper echelons of the table. Jorge's side have won seven of their last eight Primeira Liga matches and we are backing them to comfortably see off an Arouca side who have struggled for results away from home. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 64.68%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 14.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.79%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Braga in this match.

Result
BragaDrawArouca
64.68% (0.387 0.39) 20.58% (-0.161 -0.16) 14.75% (-0.226 -0.23)
Both teams to score 48.91% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.91% (0.233 0.23)46.09% (-0.233 -0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.61% (0.219 0.22)68.39% (-0.21899999999999 -0.22)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.5% (0.188 0.19)13.5% (-0.187 -0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.47% (0.376 0.38)40.53% (-0.376 -0.38)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.54% (-0.173 -0.17)43.46% (0.17400000000001 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.33% (-0.143 -0.14)79.67% (0.14400000000001 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Braga 64.67%
    Arouca 14.75%
    Draw 20.58%
BragaDrawArouca
2-0 @ 11.76% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
1-0 @ 11.74% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-1 @ 9.8% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.85% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
3-1 @ 6.54% (0.04 0.04)
4-0 @ 3.93% (0.07 0.07)
4-1 @ 3.28% (0.043 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.73% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 1.58% (0.039 0.04)
4-2 @ 1.37% (0.011 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.31% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 64.67%
1-1 @ 9.79% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
0-0 @ 5.87% (-0.058 -0.06)
2-2 @ 4.08% (-0.023000000000001 -0.02)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 20.58%
0-1 @ 4.89% (-0.072 -0.07)
1-2 @ 4.08% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-2 @ 2.04% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.14% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.13% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 1.47%
Total : 14.75%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Braga 0-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, February 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Maritimo 1-2 Braga
Sunday, February 12 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 1-1 Benfica (5-4 pen.)
Thursday, February 9 at 8.30pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Braga 4-1 Famalicao
Sunday, February 5 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 5-0 Braga
Wednesday, February 1 at 9.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Pacos de Ferreira 1-2 Braga
Saturday, January 21 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 1-0 Santa Clara
Saturday, February 11 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Gil Vicente 1-1 Arouca
Sunday, February 5 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 0-3 Benfica
Tuesday, January 31 at 9.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 1-2 Sporting Lisbon
Tuesday, January 24 at 7.45pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: Arouca 4-0 Portimonense
Friday, January 20 at 7pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Chaves 1-1 Arouca
Sunday, January 15 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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