Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 45.51%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 26.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.23%) and 1-2 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.