Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 36.74%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 34.23% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.57%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 0-1 (11.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Maritimo in this match.
