Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 40.54%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 30.39% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.01%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 0-1 (11.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
