After stumbling into the new season, where they managed just one win from their opening 11 games, Maritimo appear to have found their rhythm in recent weeks. However, to keep the ball rolling, they face the stern test of going up against a rampant Benfica side, who have proven to be solid all round this season. Given the gulf in class and quality between the two sides, we are backing As Aguias to come out victorious in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.53%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 8.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.88%) and 3-0 (10.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.83%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
