Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 71.09%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 11.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.78%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.39%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (3.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
