Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 35.06%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 34.54% and a draw had a probability of 30.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (6.97%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (13.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
