Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.34%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 31.69% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.58%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Gil Vicente in this match.
