Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.97%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (10.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
